One Mission: Identify the Top 4 Kentucky Derby Finishers each year
KDTop4 is a Kentucky Derby data analytics service that evaluates which horses historically belong in the Top-4 conversation
KDTop4 is a Kentucky Derby data analytics service that evaluates which horses historically belong in the Top-4 conversation
The Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race. Twenty horses, unfamiliar pace dynamics, a longer distance than three-year-olds have previously run, and one opportunity for things to go right—or very wrong. KDTop4 was created to help make sense of those Derby-specific complexities using data analytics, not hype.
KDTop4 ignores headlines, picks, and opinions. Instead, we analyze how horses have actually performed under prep-race conditions that have historically correlated to success in the Kentucky Derby. We evaluate race shape, running style, and how efficiently a horse used its energy in its prep races, then compare those performances to what has worked in past Derbies.
The result is a focused, transparent view of which horses, on paper, appear best suited to finish in the Top 4—without trying to predict a perfect order or tell anyone how to bet.
Take a look around, review how the model performed in 2025, and decide for yourself how you want to use the information.
Please check back during Derby Week 2026. Final 2026 KDTop4 rankings will be released following the post-position draw and updated on Derby Day if any changes to the field occur.
Our mission at KDTop4 is simple: identify the four horses most likely to finish in the Top 4 of the Kentucky Derby each year.
We do this by providing transparent, historically validated analytics that evaluate Derby entrants based on race archetypes, energy utilization patterns, and data points that have consistently mattered in past Kentucky Derbies.
Our focus is not on predicting a perfect order, but on identifying the actual Top-4 Kentucky Derby finishers — in as few horses as possible on our ranked list.
• Independent, advertiser-free analysis
• No betting advice or wagering recommendations
• Rankings based on historical performance patterns
• Designed to explain, not predict
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