The 2025 Kentucky Derby marked the inaugural year of applying the KDTop4 model for ranking entrants, showcasing the advancements in horse racing analytics. Here’s an overview of how the KDTop4 model performed.
2025 Kentucky Derby
KDTop4 Ranking
Actual
Derby
KDTop4 Finish
Rank Horse Position
1 Journalism 2
2 American Promise 16
3 Sovereignty 1
4 Sandman 7
5 Baeza 3
6 Coal Battle 11
7 Final Gambit 4
• All four actual Top-4 finishers were identified within the top seven (7) horses on the KDTop4 Model list.
• Three of the Top-4 finishers ranked inside the Top-5, including the winner, showcasing the effectiveness of our Horse Racing Analytics.
• The model successfully compressed a 20-horse field into a small, competitive group for the Kentucky Derby.
• Horses finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd all displayed energy utilization and race-fit patterns consistent with historically successful Derby profiles.
Final Gambit is a good example of how the KDTop4 Model is designed to work. While not highly ranked, his energy profile suggested he could be competitive if the race shape unfolded favorably—specifically with honest pace and late-running opportunity. The way the Kentucky Derby developed allowed his energy to be used efficiently at the right time, enabling him to outperform several higher-ranked horses and finish fourth.
This is exactly what the KDTop4 Model is designed to do: identify which horses belong in the Top-4 conversation—not predict a perfect order.
American Promise ranked highly but did not perform well on Derby Day during the Kentucky Derby. The Virginia Derby was newly points-eligible in 2025, and with limited historical data, it was challenging to calibrate how that race translates to true Derby-level conditions. The KDTop4 Model does not hand-adjust or 'fit' signals to outcomes; instead, it relies on organic, historically derived prep-race data. As more years of Virginia Derby results come in, this signal will be evaluated and calibrated accordingly within the horse racing analytics framework.
Coal Battle, ranked 6th entering the Derby, finished 11th. From a modeling standpoint, Coal Battle represented a horse whose energy profile met minimum thresholds but lacked the depth and redundancy of signals typically seen in reliable Top-4 finishers. In the Kentucky Derby, those thinner margins were exposed.
Horses near the edge of the KDTop4 list (roughly ranks 6–10) often require very specific race conditions to contend. In a 20-horse Derby field, small inefficiencies in energy use or position control can be magnified. Coal Battle’s ranking reflected possibility, not reliability.
The KDTop4 Model is designed to narrow a 20-horse field to a manageable group using horse racing analytics that are historically validated, rather than eliminating variance.
The appearance of American Promise, Coal Battle, and Final Gambit on the ranked list reflects the model’s ability to highlight conditional upside while still focusing on the strongest and most reliable signals at the top.
This balance is both intentional and necessary when the aim is to identify all four Top-4 finishers in the Kentucky Derby with as few horses as possible.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby added another full cycle of real-world validation, particularly around race shape, energy utilization, and late-race pressure. These insights will be incorporated as the KDTop4 Model continues to test, validate, and refine its horse racing analytics.
The objective remains unchanged:
Identify the Kentucky Derby Top-4 finishers in as few horses as possible, using signals that have consistently mattered in past Derbies.
Please check back during Derby Week 2026. Final KDTop4 rankings will be released following the post-position draw and updated on Derby Day if the field changes.
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