KDTOP4 MODEL RESULTS - 2025 KENTUCKY DERBY

The 2025 Kentucky Derby was the first year of officially ranking the Kentucky Derby entrants utilizing the KDTop4 model.  Here's how we did!

                                                                           2025

                                                                      Kentucky

                                                                         Derby

               KDTop4                                           Finish

Flag          Rank         Horse                       Position 

KDTop4        1            Journalism                      2

KDTop4        2           American Promise         16

KDTop4        3           Sovereignty                    1     

KDTop4        4           Sandman                          7

                      5           Baeza                                3

                      6           Coal Battle                       11

                      7           Final Gambit                   4

• All four actual Top-4 finishers were identified within the top seven (7) horses on the KDTop4 list.
   
• Three of the Top-4 finishers ranked inside the Top-5, including the winner.
   
• The model successfully compressed a 20-horse field into a small, competitive group
   
• Horses that finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd all showed Preferred Energy Profiles (PEP) consistent with historically successful Derby energy utilization and race-fit patterns.

• Final Gambit was not highly regarded, but he possessed an energy profile that suggested he could be competitive if the race shape unfolded favorably, particularly with honest pace and late-running opportunities. The way the 2025 Kentucky Derby developed allowed his energy to be used efficiently at the right time, enabling him to outperform several higher-ranked horses and finish fourth.  
   

         This is exactly what KDTop4 is designed to do: identify which horses belong in the Top-4

         conversation, not predict a perfect order. 

•  American Promise ranked highly but did not perform well on race day.
  The Virginia Derby was a newly points-eligible prep in 2025, with limited historical data available to calibrate how that race translates to Derby-level conditions.  KDTop4 does not "hand adjust" data signals to fit a narrative.  Our model it developed to utilize "organic" / unadjusted signals from prep races that span across years of the Derby.  With additional years of data, this signal from the Virginia Derby will be evaluated and adjusted accordingly.
   
•  Coal Battle ranked 6th in the KDTop4 rankings entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby but did not factor into the top four (4) finishing positions.  He finished 11th.  From a modeling standpoint, Coal Battle represented a horse whose Preferred Energy Profile (PEP) met minimum thresholds in certain areas but lacked the depth and redundancy of signals typically seen in Derby Top-4 finishers.  In the 2025 Kentucky Derby, those thinner margins were exposed. 

             Coal Battle's results highlight an important aspect of Derby modeling: Horses near the

             edge of a KDTop4 ranked list (those ranked 6th-10th) often require very specific race

            conditions to contend (finish in the top4 finishing positions), and minor inefficiencies in 

            energy use or position control (we measure this from prep races) can be magnified in a

            20-horse Derby field.  Coal Battle's inclusion on the KDTop4 ranking at #6—reflected

            possibility, not reliability.  

The KDTop4 is designed to narrow the 20-horse field, down to a manageable number of horses to focus on, based on the data analytics available—not eliminate all variance. 

American Promise, Coal Battle, and Final Gambit's inclusion on the ranked list reflects the model’s willingness to surface horses with conditional upside under specific race conditions while still concentrating the most reliable data signals to identify horses that should rise to the top.

That balance is intentional—and necessary—when the goal of the KDTop4 model is to identify all of the top four(4) Kentucky Derby finishers in as few horses on the KDTop4 ranked list as possible.  

The 2025 Kentucky Derby provided another full cycle of real-world validation that will be incorporated into the ongoing refinement of the KDTop4 model. Each Derby adds critical context—especially around race shape, energy utilization, and how different prep races translate under true Derby-level conditions.

As we move toward the 2026 Kentucky Derby, KDTop4 will continue testing, validating, and calibrating its analytics using historical results and newly observed data. The objective remains unchanged: identify the upcoming Kentucky Derby Top-4 finishers in as few horses as possible, using information that has consistently mattered in past Derbies.

Check back during Derby Week 2026! - The final 2026 KDTop4 rankings will be available as soon as possible following the post position draw, and then updated on Derby Day for any changes.