KDTop4
KDTop4
  • Home
  • Derby Data Insights
  • The KDTop4 Model
  • 2025 Derby Model Results
  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Prep Race Rankings

KDTop4 OPINION | AUGUST 25, 2026

 


Let’s Connect the Dots: A Championship Series Is Coming. Let’s Get It Right. 


CDI and NYRA have announced a new 3-year-old Championship Series for 2027. The concept is good, but the current structure is flawed—and leaving the Preakness out is unacceptable. 


August 25, 2026


By D. Ray Evans

Founder & Publisher, KDTop4


I have been contemplating an opinion piece for some time now about the modern 3-year-old Thoroughbred racing campaign and the changes we should consider in order to move the sport forward. Then Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) got the jump on me. 


On August 3, 2026, CDI and NYRA announced a new Thoroughbred Championship Series for 3-year-olds beginning in 2027. The six-race series is scheduled to run across five months, with a unified points system and a $5 million prize pool.


As the owner of a new Kentucky Derby analytics and information services company, KDTop4, this was music to my ears.


Clearly, the powers that be had been working on solutions to some of the major structural problems facing 3-year-old Thoroughbred racing—and they were taking action. The Kentucky Derby is still one of the biggest sporting events in America. The Triple Crown still has enormous historical significance. But the way elite Thoroughbreds are campaigned has changed, trainers generally want more recovery time between major efforts, and the sport has struggled to keep the casual public engaged once the Triple Crown storyline disappears.


So when two of the largest organizations in American racing announced that they were going to work together on a season-long championship series, I thought: Good. Maybe the industry is finally going to connect the dots.


It appears I may have been premature in my excitement for the CDI/NYRA partnership. While some may consider CDI and NYRA’s actions an outright declaration of war on the Triple Crown races, I view the new Championship Series announcement—and how it transpired—less as a declaration of war on the Triple Crown and more as the cold reality of corporate self-interest: two powerful racing organizations protecting billion-dollar enterprises. No, I am not a corporate apologist.  Just a realist. 


Regardless of how you feel about the participants and their actions, as it stands right now, the currently released plan is flawed. Seriously flawed. And let me be clear from the outset: leaving the Preakness out of a national 3-year-old Championship Series is unacceptable.  



What Happened: State of Maryland Playing Checkers in a Corporate Chess Match


Earlier in 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated entered into an agreement to acquire the intellectual property—including trademarks and associated rights—to the Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes from 1/ST Maryland for $85 million. Combined with CDI’s control of the Kentucky Derby, the acquisition would have given CDI control of intellectual property associated with the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Maryland, however, held a right of first refusal.


Now, you could say CDI was the villain for trying to do that—but this is business. It was an aggressive, logical corporate growth and span-of-control strategy on their part.


On July 30, 2026, the State of Maryland exercised its right of first refusal and matched CDI’s offer. The State thereby secured ownership of the Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan intellectual property.


Just four days later, CDI and NYRA went public with their new Thoroughbred Championship Series.


There are certainly those within the racing community who view what happened next as retaliation—that CDI and NYRA effectively responded to Maryland exercising its right of first refusal by leaving the Preakness outside the new Championship Series. Given the timing and sequence of events, I understand why people have reached that conclusion.


I clearly wasn’t in the room for the stakeholder discussions, so I cannot tell you whether CDI and NYRA intended to squeeze Maryland or whether retaliation played any role in their decision-making.  What I can say is that they did not need retaliation to be the motive. Corporate self-interest alone dictated that CDI and NYRA move forward with a plan that best protected their own substantial financial and strategic interests.


The result was that CDI and NYRA publicly announced, on August 3, 2026, that they were essentially building a corporate bypass highway around Baltimore—one that connected Louisville, Kentucky, to Saratoga Springs, New York, while leaving the Preakness outside the new structure.


A multi-month, multi-million-dollar racing circuit of this magnitude was almost certainly not designed in 96 hours. It is reasonable to conclude that the framework had been under development well before the August 3 announcement. But when the State of Maryland exercised its right of first refusal and prevented CDI from completing the acquisition, the landscape changed immediately.


And Maryland was not dealing simply with friendly partners in a historic sporting tradition. It was dealing with major corporate enterprises. When the business landscape changes, corporations adjust their strategy to protect their assets, their market position, and their financial interests. Sorry, but that is what corporations do.


The State of Maryland appears to have misread the playing field. What may have made sense from a public-sector perspective collided head-on with the realities of a private-sector competitive engagement. Government agencies and corporations operate under very different incentives. Public agencies are constrained by political accountability, public financing, longer decision cycles, and local interests. 


The core issue, in my view, was a fundamental misunderstanding of power. Maryland had prestige, history, and ownership of the middle leg of the Triple Crown. But those assets did not necessarily translate into enough market leverage to force CDI and NYRA to accommodate Maryland's position. 


Private corporate entities do not wait for bureaucratic consensus. Whatever the internal sequence of events, CDI and NYRA emerged with what effectively became a Plan B: a championship structure built around races within their own sphere of influence. The announced series includes the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Matt Winn Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes, Travers Stakes, and a new season-ending championship race—but not the Preakness.



The Preakness Squeeze: an Unacceptable Outcome


Maryland’s move toward greater independence in Thoroughbred racing did not begin with Churchill Downs’ $85 million offer for the Preakness intellectual property. It had been underway for years.


In 2024, Maryland approved an agreement transferring Pimlico Race Course to state control for $1 and began restructuring the state’s racing industry around a nonprofit operating model. The new Maryland Jockey Club was created in September 2024 and assumed day-to-day control of Maryland Thoroughbred racing on January 1, 2025. State law also authorized up to $400 million in bonds for racing-facility construction, with significant amounts dedicated to Pimlico and associated training infrastructure.


In private business, actions really do speak louder than words.


By the time CDI attempted to acquire the Preakness intellectual property in 2026, Maryland had already made clear that it intended to control the future of its racing industry. When the State then matched CDI’s $85 million offer for the Preakness IP, it added another major commitment to an already substantial investment in Maryland racing— while its Triple Crown private partners were still holding most of the cards when it came to the broader 3-year-old Thoroughbred racing calendar and the emerging Championship Series.  Maryland financed the IP acquisition through MEDCO, with debt service backed by future Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan revenues, including wagering, ticketing, and sponsorships.


The problem was that Maryland's ownership and independence did not translate into control over the broader 3-year-old racing calendar. 


As it stands right now, the 2027 Triple Crown calendar is set as follows:

Kentucky Derby — Saturday, May 1 

Preakness Stakes — Sunday, May 23 

Belmont Stakes — Saturday, June 5


That creates a 22-day gap from the Derby to the Preakness, followed by just 13 days from the Preakness to the Belmont.


Complicating matters further, CDI and NYRA’s announced structure reportedly requires a horse to participate in at least four Championship Series races to be eligible for the $5 million prize pool.  That creates an additional incentive for connections to remain on the Championship Series path and makes the exclusion of the Preakness far more consequential than simply leaving one historic race off the schedule. 


When Maryland announced the new 2027 Preakness schedule on August 5—just two days after the CDI and NYRA Championship Series announcement—the Triple Crown schedule became immediately compromised. The new spacing gave horses more time between the Derby and Preakness, but it compressed the Preakness-to-Belmont turnaround to just 13 days.


That is where the calendar problem becomes a horse-management problem.


Modern-day training protocols and race-spacing practices make a 13-day turnaround from the Preakness to the Belmont far from ideal for most connections—particularly following two demanding Triple Crown races. For a horse attempting to win the Triple Crown, however, there may be no other choice, as it currently stands. 


The Paulick Report recently asked several leading trainers how they would approach the new 2027 structure if they had a Kentucky Derby winner. Their responses suggest that, given a workable choice, many top trainers would prefer to keep the Triple Crown path intact. Dale Romans and Wesley Ward explicitly favored the Triple Crown; Mark Casse said he would go to the Preakness with the additional Derby-to-Preakness spacing and hoped the industry could create more time before the Belmont; Amelia Green emphasized the prestige of the Triple Crown; and Whit Beckman warned against creating incentives that undermine it. Kenny McPeek was more open to the Championship Series depending on the money, while Brad Cox emphasized evaluating the horse first.


Again, the problem is the calendar.


Asking a Derby winner to come back in the Preakness and then face the Belmont just 13 days later changes the equation. At that point, horse management and recovery may force connections to make a very different decision.


That is the real danger. Connections should always be free to chart the path they believe is best for their horse. If they decide to skip the Preakness, bypass the Belmont, allow additional recovery time, or take a different route through the summer, that is their decision to make. What the industry should not do is build a structure that forces those connections to choose between pursuing the Triple Crown and pursuing the Championship Series.


There is a fundamental difference between connections choosing their own path and the system forcing them to choose one path or the other.


For those of you frowning on the CDI/NYRA partnership, I get it. But my guess is they are willing to withstand a little chink in their “corporate goodwill” armor. In corporate America, winning handles and packed grandstands can go a long way toward curing reputational damage, especially if it is ultimately proven that they moved the sport forward. 


I understand how we got here. But I do not accept where we ended up.


Let me state my position clearly: a national 3-year-old Championship Series that leaves the Preakness Stakes on the outside looking in is unacceptable. The Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont must be foundational components of the Championship Series. That does not mean every horse has to compete in all three. Connections should always retain the ability to chart the path they believe is best for their horse. The races belong in the system; participation remains the connections' choice.


CDI, NYRA, the State of Maryland, and the Maryland Jockey Club need to get back to the table and resolve this. If dates have to change, change them. If the structure has to change, change it. If everybody has to give a little ground, then give a little ground. Whatever caused the current separation, figure it out and bring the middle jewel back into the fold.


Until that happens, the Championship Series is not merely flawed. It is fundamentally incomplete, and it risks creating exactly the kind of split-path system that could fracture the 3-year-old racing landscape.



The Audience Will Follow the Storyline


The public, the broadcasters, and the sport’s entire national footprint are deeply affected by how well 3-year-old Thoroughbred racing carries its story from one major race to the next.


And if you want to see exactly what I am talking about, look no further than the field assembled for this Saturday’s 2026 Travers Stakes.


The Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner is there. The Preakness winner is there. The Haskell winner is there. The Jim Dandy winner—and Kentucky Derby runner-up—is there. The Derby third-place finisher is there. And emerging summer horses have now joined the conversation.


This is exactly what a season-long storyline can look like. These horses did not all take the same path to Saratoga. They won different races, lost different races, developed at different times, and their connections made different decisions along the way. But now many of the best 3-year-olds in the country are converging in one place for the Travers.

The racing has already created the cast. 


Now turn on the marketing machine and make sure the public knows the characters.


Because assembling the best horses is only half the equation. The other half is giving the casual sports fan a reason to know them, follow them, and ultimately root for them. (hold that thought for later - I've got some ideas). 


Let’s be honest about the landscape: the Kentucky Derby can function as a standalone national sporting event. Very few other races on the calendar can make that claim.

On the first Saturday in May, the Derby transcends horse racing. It routinely draws a massive national audience regardless of who is running. But once the Derby is over, the sport relies heavily on the built-in Triple Crown narrative to keep casual fans engaged.


The last decade of Triple Crown viewership shows a clear pattern:

  

Year      Kentucky Derby     Preakness Stakes   Belmont Stakes 

 

2017             16.45M                      7.54M                           4.92M

Narrative: Always Dreaming ran in the Preakness but lost. No Triple Crown bid entering Belmont.

 

2018            14.88M                      7.90M                          12.66M

Narrative:  Justify won the Derby and Preakness.  Triple Crown alive entering Belmont.

 

2019            16.34M                      5.41M                            4.91M

Narrative: Derby winner Country House skipped the Preakness. Triple Crown storyline gone.

 

2020            9.26M                        2.36M                           3.33M

Narrative: COVID-19 disruption; races postponed and run out of traditional order.

 

2021          14.37M                        7.01M                           4.50M

Narrative: Medina Spirit ran in the Preakness but lost. No Triple Crown bid entering Belmont.

 

2022         15.79M                        5.26M                            4.72M

Narrative: Rich Strike skipped the Preakness.   No Triple Crown storyline.


2023         14.40M                       5.02M                            3.52M

Narrative: Mage ran in the Preakness but lost. Triple Crown over before Belmont.

 

2024         16.70M                       5.30M                           3.66M

Narrative: Mystik Dan ran in the Preakness but lost. No Triple Crown bid entering Belmont.

 

2025         17.70M                       4.60M                           3.83M

Narrative: Derby winner Sovereignty skipped the Preakness. No Triple Crown bid.

 

2026         19.30M                      5.50M                           3.73M

Narrative: Derby winner Golden Tempo skipped   the Preakness. No Triple Crown bid entering Belmont.


Source note: Viewership figures are compiled primarily from Sports Media Watch and network-reported Nielsen/Adobe audience data. Measurement methodology has changed over the period—including expanded out-of-home measurement and newer Nielsen “Big Data” methodology—so the table is best used to illustrate broad audience patterns rather than as a perfectly apples-to-apples historical measurement. The 2020 season was also a fall race during the COVID-19 pandemic.


The 2018 season is especially revealing. Justify won the Kentucky Derby, then won the Preakness, and went to Belmont with the Triple Crown still alive. Belmont viewership surged to 12.66 million, compared with roughly 4.9 million in both 2017 and 2019, when no Triple Crown was at stake. Sports Media Watch reported that 2019 Belmont viewership fell 61% from the previous year’s Triple Crown-winning Belmont. 


That does not mean storyline is the only factor affecting television ratings. Network placement, scheduling, competition from other sports, and measurement methods all matter. But the broader pattern is difficult to ignore: when the public has a compelling reason to follow the same horse from one race to the next, interest rises dramatically.


The problem is not that the public refuses to care about 3-year-old horse racing after May. The problem is that once the Triple Crown storyline disappears, the sport often stops giving the casual fan a clear reason to keep following. American Pharoah showed in 2015 that a compelling 3-year-old star can carry national interest deep into the summer. The opportunity now is not to replace the Triple Crown storyline, but to build upon it—to create a system where that continuity does not depend on one extraordinary horse surviving all three races. 


Imagine if, by midsummer, the sport had deliberately developed a recognizable cast of stars every year: the Derby winner, the Preakness winner, the Belmont winner, a Haskell winner, a Jim Dandy horse coming into form, a Travers contender, or a late-developing star. Then surround those recognizable horses with other elite 3-year-olds who had proven themselves on the track.


By Championship Week, those would not be 12 anonymous horses.  They would be the cast of the season, and the championship would be where the story gets settled.


 

My Blueprint for the Championship Series


The world is full of internet experts, and I may be headed in that direction, but I'm willing to risk it for the opportunity to present what I would pursue if I were the commissioner of the 3-year-old Championship Series.


I’m not just contemplating nostalgia or tradition. I’m looking at the business structure, the racing calendar, the horse-management realities, the financial incentives, and the way the public actually follows the sport. If you look at the boardroom decisions, the leverage issues, the compressed race spacing, and the television viewership patterns of the casual sports public, the dots are already there. They just need to be connected in a way that works for the whole sport.


Alright. If you allow me the proverbial commissioner reins for a moment, let me see what I can come up with.

 

1. Turn on the Marketing and Fan Engagement Machine.

Before I get into race schedules, qualification systems, points, post positions, or governance, let me start with the most important part of this entire blueprint: the fans. None of what I am about to propose works without them.


If we are going to create a season-long Championship Series, then we need to market it like a season—not as a collection of unrelated horse races. The horses, their connections, their stories, their rivalries, their strengths, and even their flaws have to become part of the product. As the 2026 Travers field demonstrates, the racing itself can create the cast.


Now turn on the marketing machine and fan engagement apparatus to make sure the public knows the characters.


And don’t just ask fans to watch. Give them a reason to participate. Imagine a major national sponsor putting up a $500,000 fan-engagement prize pool tied to the Championship Series. Create a free fantasy competition that follows the natural progression of the 3-year-old season: pick two horses for the Triple Crown portion of the season, reset after the Belmont and pick two horses for the summer campaign, then make one final selection when the Championship field is set.


Everyone picks their two horses for the Triple Crown. Two horses for the summer. One horse for all the marbles.


That summer reset matters. New horses emerge after the Belmont. A late-developing 3-year-old can suddenly become a Haskell, Jim Dandy, or Travers contender, and the fans should have an incentive to discover that horse, learn the story, and get invested in what happens next.


Put the fantasy standings on the broadcasts. Put them on social media. Let the announcers talk about which horses the public is selecting. Build sponsor promotions around the races. Create a meaningful grand prize and reward the top finishers. There are countless ways to engage the audience once you start thinking of this as a five-month sports property instead of a series of individual horse races.


Fan engagement is what this is ultimately all about. If we build the perfect racing calendar and qualification system but nobody outside the existing racing audience cares enough to follow it, what exactly have we accomplished? Nothing.


Fan engagement is paramount in moving the sport forward.


2. The Triple Crown Must Be Foundational.

The Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont must be foundational components of the Championship Series. I support the concept of a season-long championship, but I do not support building it by separating one of the three Triple Crown races from the other two. Leaving the Preakness outside the Championship Series is unacceptable.


That does not mean every horse should be expected to run in all three Triple Crown races. Those are two entirely different issues. The races belong in the system; participation remains the connections’ choice.


A national Championship Series should build upon the history, prestige, and public recognition the sport already possesses. The Triple Crown is the obvious foundation upon which to build it—not something the new Championship Series should compete against.


3. Let the Connections Chart Their Own Path.

No owner or trainer should be expected to run a horse in every race. Connections should remain free to chart the path they believe is best for their individual horse—whether that means skipping the Preakness, bypassing the Belmont, allowing additional recovery time, or choosing among different summer races.


The difference is choice. Connections deciding on their own to bypass a race because they believe that is best for their horse is fundamentally different from a championship structure that effectively forces them to choose between two competing systems.


As the 2027 structure stands right now, that decision could confront the connections of a Kentucky Derby horse almost immediately: Do we pursue the Triple Crown through the Preakness, or bypass the Preakness and remain on the Championship Series path toward the Belmont?


What we should not do is force those connections to choose between the Triple Crown and the Championship Series immediately after the Kentucky Derby. As it stands right now, they will have to make that decision right away.


One championship system can have multiple legitimate routes through it. One road does not mean one mandatory route.


4. Build a Calendar That Works for the Horses. 

One thing I learned during more than 30 years in operations and administrative management is this: If the environment you are operating in changes and you don’t adapt, eventually you die.


I have been a Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown fan for a long time. I do not think the traditions are broken. The environment has changed. Horses are campaigned differently. Trainers want more recovery time. Veterinary medicine is different. Training is different. Shipping is different. The sport has evolved, and the calendar has to evolve with it. That does not diminish the Triple Crown—it recognizes modern racing reality.


If I had a clean sheet of paper, my preferred structure would look something like this:


May (1st weekend) — Kentucky Derby
June (1st weekend) — Preakness
July (1st/2nd weekend) — Belmont
July — Matt Winn
July — Haskell / Jim Dandy
August (last weekend) — Travers
September (TBD) — National Championship


This is not intended to create a mandatory sequence of starts. It creates options. A horse that bypasses the Belmont could use the Matt Winn. Other horses could take the Haskell or Jim Dandy routes leading up to the Travers. Connections could choose different paths, different amounts of recovery time, and different campaign strategies while remaining within the same Championship Series.


Those paths can begin to converge at the Travers before ultimately leading toward the September National Championship. The objective should be to build a calendar around the horses—not force the horses to fit the calendar.


Now, if I really had my choice, I would seriously consider ending the entire 3-year-old Championship season with the Travers in late August. Saratoga already provides the history, prestige, and national stage, and late August gets the Championship settled before college football begins to dominate the Saturday sports landscape. 


Just look at the field assembled for the 2026 Travers—it already has many of the ingredients of the Super Bowl-like event I am describing.


But I think we may already be past that as a realistic option. CDI and NYRA have proposed a separate season-ending Championship race in September. So, for purposes of this Blueprint, I am working within that framework and focusing on how to make that Championship as strong as possible.


5. Reward Performance—Don't Manufacture Participation.

I like automatic qualification. Finish first or second in designated Championship Series races? You're in. A horse that performs at that level in one of the designated races has earned its place in the Championship field.


I would then reserve a limited number of at-large berths for late-developing horses or others with strong overall credentials who did not secure an automatic spot. The Championship Series points standings should play a significant role in determining those at-large selections.


I would want the September Championship field limited to roughly 12 elite 3-year-olds—not 12 random entrants, but 12 horses that have proven their ability on the racetrack and earned their place in the field.


I would also eliminate the minimum-race participation requirement altogether. If a horse has earned its way into the Championship through performance, I do not believe it should also have to satisfy an arbitrary minimum number of starts. I could potentially be convinced that three Championship Series starts is a reasonable compromise, but four is too many.


There also needs to be reasonable flexibility for injury or circumstances beyond the connections' control. Imagine a Kentucky Derby winner developing an issue that causes the horse to miss several weeks. That horse should not lose its opportunity to compete for a national championship because its connections did the responsible thing and gave it time to recover.


The system should encourage participation, but it should not manufacture starts. Qualify horses based on what they accomplish when they race—not simply on how often they race.


6. Use the Races We Already Have.

The sport already has the races: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Jim Dandy, and Travers—and it looks like we are now adding the Matt Winn to the championship landscape as well.


We should connect these races within one coherent structure rather than manufacture significance where significance already exists. The Preakness brings history and national recognition. The Haskell is already a major summer Grade 1 event. The Jim Dandy has an established role leading up to the Travers. The Matt Winn can provide another useful option, particularly for horses whose connections choose to bypass the Belmont.


Not every race has to serve the same purpose, and not every horse has to run in every race. Give the established races appropriate roles within the championship structure and allow different routes to lead toward the same destination.


7. Make the Points Matter. 

CDI and NYRA have announced that the Championship Series will use a unified points system, although the actual point allocations have not yet been released. I agree with the concept. But the points should do more than create a leaderboard.


First, the points should help determine the limited number of at-large berths remaining after the automatic qualifiers are established. That rewards horses that perform consistently throughout the season even if they do not secure an automatic berth.


Then I would give those points a second purpose. Once the Championship field is determined, I would tie the final points standings directly to the Post-Position Draw. The higher a horse finishes in the Championship Series standings, the earlier its connections get to choose their post position for the September finale.


That gives every point value. A third-place finish in the Preakness matters. A strong run in the Haskell matters. A Travers finish matters. And even after a horse has automatically qualified, there is still a legitimate competitive reason to keep participating and accumulating points.


Then turn the Post-Position Draw itself into an event. The highest-ranked horse gets first choice of any available post. The second-ranked horse chooses next, then the third, and so on.


Picture it. The trainer or ownership group walks onto the stage.


“We’ll take Post #5.” Post 5 comes off the board. Television analysts immediately start breaking it down. Why the 5? What does that mean for the pace? Who wants to stay outside the speed? Who wants to save ground?


Think NFL Draft.


Fans are watching. Television has something to analyze. Social media has something to debate. A routine administrative procedure suddenly becomes part of Championship Week.


8. Turn Championship Week Into a National Event.

The current CDI/NYRA structure is understandably concentrated around races controlled or influenced by their organizations. But if we are really talking about creating a national championship for 3-year-olds, the championship itself should ultimately have a broader identity.


I do not think every major racing state needs a permanent race in the Championship Series. That would become bloated quickly. Instead, I would make the September Championship a traveling Super Bowl-style event and rotate it among a select group of premier racetracks throughout the United States. Horse racing already has a model for this in the Breeders' Cup.

One year Churchill Downs. Another year Santa Anita. Another year Keeneland. Maybe Del Mar. Maybe Oaklawn. Maybe Fair Grounds if it met the standards. Make tracks bid for and earn the opportunity to host Championship Week.


And make it a week—not simply another Saturday afternoon stakes race. The post-position selection becomes an event. The horses and connections become the stars. Television has days to tell the stories developed throughout the season. Fans know that everything since the first Saturday in May has been building toward this moment.


The Championship should not belong to CDI. It should not belong to NYRA. It should belong to the sport.



9. Create Independent Championship Governance

If this is really going to become a national championship, the series itself needs independent governance.


CDI should have a voice. NYRA should have a voice. Maryland should have a voice. Monmouth should have a voice. Horsemen and horsewomen should have a voice. Owners should have a voice. Broadcasters and other major stakeholders should have a seat at the table.


But somebody has to be responsible for the table.


An independent governing body should oversee qualification standards, the points system, at-large selections, the post-position process, and selection of Championship Week host sites. That allows individual racing organizations to advocate for their own properties while giving the Championship Series a structure that is not controlled entirely by any one corporate interest.

If the Championship is going to rotate among premier racetracks and truly represent the best 3-year-olds in the country, its governance should reflect that national purpose.


The Championship Series should be administered in the best interest of Thoroughbred racing, the horses, the owners, the trainers, and the fans—not simply in the best interest of the individual properties involved.



In Closing

Bottom line—the solution has to bring the sport together. 


The Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont must be foundational components of the Championship Series. The structure cannot force connections and the best horses to choose between pursuing the Triple Crown and pursuing a competing Championship Series. It should incorporate established races like the Haskell where they serve a legitimate purpose, and it should not become merely a collection of races controlled by CDI and NYRA.


I have said it throughout this piece, but it bears repeating: leaving the Preakness out is unacceptable.


CDI, NYRA, the State of Maryland, and the Maryland Jockey Club need to get back to the table and figure this out. But this time, make the table bigger. Have the Monmouth Park and Haskell folks stop by for a beer and a chat. Better yet, let’s open up the whole backyard. “Hey Santa Anita, Del Mar, Oaklawn, Fair Grounds—we’re having a BBQ this weekend. Come on over.”


Somebody bring the drinks. Somebody bring the shrimp. But everybody bring a willingness to get this right—together.


The opportunity is much bigger than a standard corporate landscape. The question is whether we can create another moment four months after the Kentucky Derby—one built not around a single race, but around an entire 3-year-old championship season that culminates in a Super Bowl-like event. 


And if we turn on the marketing and fan-engagement machine throughout the season, we can give the public a reason to follow these horses all the way there.


And when we get there, the field is not random. It is the best 3-year-olds in the country meeting to settle it—horses the public has come to know and is now rooting for. They know their stories. They know their connections. They know their strengths, their flaws, and how they got there.


They are the top 3-year-old athletes in our sport, duking it out for all the marbles.


I would watch that.


Get this right, and the industry could transform the sport. Get it wrong, and the controlling stakeholders will likely weaken the very foundation we are trying to strengthen.  


One road. One season. One championship.



 

Sources and Further Reading

These are the principal sources supporting the factual reporting in this article. The commentary, analysis, proposed championship structure, rotating-host concept, qualification system, post-position concept, and conclusions are my own opinions and proposals.


Churchill Downs Incorporated — August 3, 2026: “Horse Racing’s Biggest Events Unite in Landmark New ‘Thoroughbred Championship Series’”
Official CDI/NYRA announcement creating the Thoroughbred Championship Series beginning in 2027. Documents the six-race, five-month structure; Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Matt Winn Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes, Travers Stakes and September Championship Race; unified points system; $5 million prize pool; and national television coverage through NBC and FOX. The announcement also states that additional details regarding eligibility rules, points and prize distribution would follow. 


Churchill Downs Incorporated — April 21, 2026: “Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Preakness Intellectual Property Rights”
Documents CDI’s definitive agreement to acquire the intellectual property, trademarks and associated rights to the Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes from 1/ST Maryland LLC for $85 million. 


Office of Maryland Governor Wes Moore — June 18, 2026: “Governor Moore Announces Maryland to Exercise Right of First Refusal to Acquire Preakness Intellectual Property”
Documents Maryland’s decision to exercise its right of first refusal and match CDI’s $85 million offer. The announcement also explains that the acquisition would be financed through a tax-exempt revenue-bond issuance by the Maryland Economic Development Corporation (MEDCO), with debt service backed by future Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan revenues, including wagering, ticketing and sponsorship streams. 


Office of Maryland Governor Wes Moore — July 30, 2026: “Governor Moore Announces Maryland Fully Owns Preakness Intellectual Property Rights After Final Acquisition”
Official announcement that Maryland completed its acquisition of the Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan intellectual property rights from 1/ST Racing after exercising its right of first refusal. 


Office of Maryland Governor Wes Moore — May 15, 2024: “Governor Moore and Board of Public Works Approve Agreement to Transfer Ownership of Pimlico Race Course to the State of Maryland”

Documents Maryland’s restructuring of Thoroughbred racing, including transfer of Pimlico Race Course to the Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority for $1, establishment of a nonprofit operating model, development of an off-site training facility, and the broader state-led redevelopment of Maryland racing. 


Maryland General Assembly, Department of Legislative Services — Analysis of the FY 2026 Maryland Executive Budget: Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority
Documents Maryland’s expanded financial commitment to Thoroughbred racing under Chapter 410 of 2024, including increasing authorized racing-facility debt from $375 million to $400 million, a minimum $250 million commitment to Pimlico, and authorization of $110 million for a training facility. 


Office of Maryland Governor Wes Moore — August 5, 2026: “Governor Moore Announces New Preakness Race Schedule”
Official announcement that beginning in 2027 the Preakness will move later on the calendar and be contested on Sunday, three weeks after the Kentucky Derby. The announcement also documents the extension of NBC Sports’ Preakness broadcast partnership through 2032. 


Daily Racing Form — David Grening, August 5, 2026: “Preakness moved back eight days on calendar for 2027”
Documents the 2027 Triple Crown calendar—Kentucky Derby on May 1, Preakness on May 23 and Belmont Stakes on June 5—creating 22 days between the Derby and Preakness and 13 days between the Preakness and Belmont. The report also documents that horses must participate in at least four of the six CDI/NYRA Championship Series races to become eligible for the $5 million prize pool, which pays the top eight points earners. 


Paulick Report — Joe Nevills, August 18, 2026: “Chase The Triple Crown Or Thoroughbred Championship Series? Trainers Weigh In”
Interviews leading trainers about how they would approach the new 2027 racing structure with a Kentucky Derby winner, including Dale Romans, Wesley Ward, Kenny McPeek, Brad Cox, Mark Casse, Amelia Green and Whit Beckman. Their responses provide important context regarding Triple Crown prestige, race spacing, horse management and the financial incentives created by the Championship Series. 


Sports Media Watch — Jon Lewis, June 2018: “Belmont Stakes Ratings Trail Last Triple Crown”
Reports that Justify’s 2018 Triple Crown-winning Belmont Stakes averaged approximately 12.7 million viewers on NBC, providing the key comparison for the article’s discussion of audience interest when a Triple Crown remains at stake. 


Sports Media Watch — Jon Lewis, June 2019: “Belmont Stakes ratings hit NBC low”
Reports that the 2019 Belmont Stakes averaged 4.91 million viewers, compared with 12.66 million for Justify’s Triple Crown-winning Belmont the previous year—a 61% decline in viewership. It also reports approximately 4.92 million viewers for the 2017 Belmont, another year without Triple Crown implications. 


Sports Media Watch — Jon Lewis, May 2018: “Preakness Ratings Up, But Low, on NBC”
Reports 7.90 million viewers for Justify’s 2018 Preakness and 7.54 million for the 2017 Preakness, supporting the historical viewership comparisons used in the article. 


Sports Media Watch — Jon Lewis, May 2021: “Preakness ratings highest in three years”
Reports 7.01 million viewers for the 2021 Preakness and provides comparison data to the 2018 Preakness. 


NBC Sports — May 3, 2026: “NBC Sports Delivers the Most-Watched Kentucky Derby on Record”
NBC Sports’ official audience report for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, reporting an average audience of 19.3 million viewers during the principal Derby telecast window. 


Additional television audience data: Historical Triple Crown audience figures in the article were compiled primarily from Sports Media Watch reporting and network-reported Nielsen/Adobe audience data. Because television measurement methodology has changed over the period—including expanded out-of-home measurement and newer Nielsen methodology—the historical table is intended to illustrate broad audience patterns rather than provide a perfectly apples-to-apples measurement across every year.

 

© 2025 KDTop4 · All Rights Reserved                                                       KDTop4 is owned and operated by Top4 Racing Analytics, LLC. All analysis is informational and for educational purposes only. 

Powered by

  • Home
  • Derby Data Insights
  • The KDTop4 Model
  • 2025 Derby Model Results
  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use

This website uses cookies.

We use cookies to analyze website traffic and optimize your website experience. By accepting our use of cookies, your data will be aggregated with all other user data.

Accept